International journal of Terrorism & National Security

The dominant religion in the Middle East is Islam. Since the 6th century, Islam was born in the Middle East and spread far into Western Europe, North Africa, and Southeast Asia. The pre-Islamic Middle East was a tribal society, not a centralized political system. Muhammad promoted the integration of the Arab nation, abolished polytheism, such as totemism and propagated monotheism. Islam has been regarded as the first principle to govern the politics and society of other peoples except the Jewish people in the Middle East. Muslims in the Middle East began to perceive threats to existing order destruction, as the expansion of Islam and the golden age declined, clashes with Christian civilization, and Western colonization of the Middle East. In particular, the peoples of this region tried to overcome the confusion of the Islamic community by experiencing the invasion of Western powers and colonial rule since the modern era. In addition, since the modern era, the birth of ethnocentric independent nations has been achieved in this region. Four nations built different national states, and in the course of the process, there was a conflict between the nations. In particular, the clash between Zionism and Arab nationalism has lasted for 70 years, and there is a general war, local conflict, and terrorism. Most Muslims want peace and social stability, but radicals called "Jihadists" are using indiscriminate and brutal means of terrorism to realize their idealistic society. The Jihadism they claim is different from the Jihadism, which most peaceful Muslims say. On the other hand, the extremist group does not disappear completely, and when the forces begin to weaken, new derivative organizations were created. is created. In recent years, IS(ISIS), which has occupied Syrian and Iraq territories and declared the state, has become more and more disintegrated, but the potential threat of terrorism is taken seriously as its members disperse to other regions.

This study attempted to analyze the main causes of terrorist incidents. The purpose of this study is to see how it affects terrorist attacks. In particular, this study focused on Ripple Effect. The factors that can be identified before the terrorist attacks were classified as One Ripple Effect as it can detect the phenomenon before the terrorist attacks. These processes would be able to respond in a precise way to reduce terrorist damage. The result of analysis showed that ideology and poverty of the country were not the factors that raised the level of terror damage. Thus, it was confirmed that the damage was increased in the case of Ripple Effect. This was a natural consequence. However, this study could suggest that the variables constructed to identify the ripple effect were measured as identifiable factors before the terrorist attacks, so that prompt and precise responses were required under the same circumstances. This study used Global Terrorism Data(GTD) for research analysis. Data was analyzed from 2014 to 2016, and the raw data was used. In order to measure the independent variables that this study wanted to check, variables were transformed and used in analysis. The independent variables used for this analysis were Ideology, Ripple Effect, and Money Demand. In addition, the dependent variable was used as a damage that combines the wounded and Kills(including terrorists) in the event of terrorism. In the final model, the Money Demand variable was not regularized and was excluded. It is the limit of this study that the poverty of the country is to be confirmed through Money Demand. However, it is clear from the point of view that the demand for money is a proof of poverty, and that the research has proceeded. In conclusion, even in the case of terrorism based on ideology and national poverty, there should be a more precise response to the reduction of damage in the situation where Ripple Effect is predicted. The variables that make up the Ripple Effect include political objectives, message delivery, and terrorist targets. Therefore, even though we did not control many variables, it can be based on the fact that concrete action should be prepared in a situation where there is a concern about ripple effect.

North Korea has launched a number of missile tests and developed different kinds of missiles. As you know, a ballistic missile can be used as a means for Weapons of Mass Destruction(WMD) by flying most of the flight time outside the atmosphere at high speeds. Due to its flight characteristic, it is difficult to estimate and predict the trajectory of the end-stage flight. In addition, there are technical difficulties in terms of defense. These ballistic missile threats are continuing to be developed since more than 25 countries are in possession of ballistic missiles, such as silos, transportable chemicals, biological or nuclear weapons. After the end of the Cold War, Third World states started to possess some forms of ballistic missiles. That has created a serious security threat, and in particular, the development of North Korean nuclear capabilities and WMD which are threats to Northeast Asian security. Moreover, the participation of Third World states in missile development and technology has been significantly increased. For instance, North Korea's rocket technology is reached at a certain level. And, in December 2012, the satellites of Taepodong-3, a 10,000-km-class ICBM rocket, were orbited. As a result, these threats have now become a global security threat, including to the United States and out of Northeast Asia. Through its experience in developing ballistic missiles over the last three decades, it is true that North Korea has technological limitations, such as reentry technology and miniaturization of nuclear warheads. North Korea conducted the fourth nuclear test with “test hydrogen” in January 2016 and conducted the sixth nuclear test with the “hydrogen bomb for intercontinental ballistic missile(ICBM)” in September 2017. In his 2018 New Year’s Speech, Kim Jong Un announced the “historic accomplishment of completing our nuclear capabilities.” In July and November of the same year, he “successfully” fired the ICBM tests. After all, Kim Jong Un declared "the achievement of the historical cause of the nation's nuclear armed forces and the achievement of the rocket-powered nation" to the world. In the context of this situation, we should analyze North Korea’s ballistic missiles technological level and prospect in near future. Especially, since North Korea had tried to accomplish nuclear experiment and SLBM/ICBM launch, it is very important to evaluate North Korea’s missiles technology and limitations and prospect North Korea’s next action. In order to complement technological problems, North Korea has secured continuous technology both domestically and internationally. I will make an effort to analyze North Korean technological problems. Lastly, we prospect that North Korea will cease all nuclear and ICBM testing and open to dialogue with the modes of negotiation. However, at the same time, there are some contradictions that prospect it will continue to pursue nuclear and missile capabilities by buying more time . In this context, my report will briefly assess North Korea's military behavior.